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using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method … incorporate information about future interest rate announcements: “inattention”, “credibility”, “finite planning horizon”, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830239
Central banks around the world have revised their operating frameworks in an attempt to counter the challenges presented by the effective lower bound (ELB) on policy rates. We examine how private sector agents might learn such a new regime and the effect of future shocks on that process. In our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014296448
We examine how private sector agents might learn a new monetary strategy that is adopted while at the ELB. Little can be discovered until the economy improves enough that rates would be near liftoff under the old strategy. Recessionary shocks would thus delay learning while large inflationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014330977
Experience-Based Learning (EBL) that renders expectations heterogeneous across age groups. Under EBL, the age …-distribution directly affects the composition of aggregate expectations which gives rise to a novel channel by which the demographic …-independent expectations, we show that EBL weakens the pass-through of monetary policy on aggregate demand. This affects monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013330596
. We investigate the model under different expectational assumptions: rational expectations, subjective expectations with … infinite-horizon learning, and subjective expectations with Euler-equation learning. Under rational expectations, the model … sensitive to the modeling of expectations, and they highlight learning as a key behavioral feature to understand macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509319
interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014074177
inflation targeting with target zones or tolerance bands. Private-sector agents form subjective expectations, update their … data on realized macroeconomic variables and survey data on expectations for four inflation-targeting economies: Australia … outside the band, and they always satisfy the Taylor principle. Private-sector expectations respond similarly to structural …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015407758
We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action rules within an agent …, we find that neither individual nor macroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less … naïve learning rules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011763035
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
interest rates, inflation and inflation expectations. Average-inflation targeting can approximate the price path observed under … policy rule. In particular, if the central bank considers more than two lags, subjects fail to form expectations that are … target helps somewhat anchor longrun inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012621569