Recently, a Competitive Exception Learning Algorithm (CELA) was introduced [1, 2]. This algorithm establishes an optimal mapping from a (continuous) M-dimensional input sample space to an N-dimensional (continuous) output sample space. CELA is aimed to discover regimes (i.e. local behavior in...

We consider the basic problem of refi tting a time series over a finite period of time and formulate it as a stochastic dynamic program. By changing the underlying Markov decision process we are able to obtain a model that at optimality considers historical data as well as forecasts of future...

Price-level targeting (PLT) is optimal under the fully-informed rational expectations (FIRE) benchmark but lacks empirical support. Given the hurdles to the implementation of macroeconomic field experiments, we utilize a laboratory group experiment - where expectations are elicited from human...