. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a … disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs … between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in …

different beliefs about how policy choices will map into future economic outcomes. We show that when the incumbent party can …-serving behavior by political parties, but rather stems from their differing beliefs about the consequences of their actions. …

Using belief elicitation, the paper investigates the formation and the evolution of beliefs in a signalling game in … which a common prior on Sender's type is not induced. Beliefs are elicited about the type of the Sender and about the … strategies of the players. The experimental subjects often start with diffuse uniform beliefs and update them in view of …

' successes. In our model, both the agent's information and his beliefs are multi-dimensional, allowing us to study interactions … settings. Third, the agent's beliefs are subject to "bias substitution," whereby forces that decrease his bias regarding one … multi-dimensional beliefs possible, we develop tools for studying learning under high-dimensional misspecified models. …