Understanding the dynamics of interest rates and the term structure has important implications for issues as diverse as real economic activity, monetary policy, pricing of interest rate derivative securities and public debt financing. Our paper follows a longstanding tradition of using factor...

In this paper, we apply a collection of parametric (Normal, Normal GARCH, Student GARCH, RiskMetrics and high-frequency duration models) and non-parametric (empirical quantile, extreme distributions models) Value-at-Risk (VaR) techniques to intraday data for three stocks traded on the New York...

Previous literature indicates that stock returns are predictable by several strongly autocorrelated forecasting variables, especially at longer horizons. It is suggested that this finding is spurious and follows from a neglected near unit root problem. Instead of the commonly used t test we...

Results for the identification of non-linear models are used to support the raditional form of he order condition by sufficient conditions. The sufficient conditions reveal a two step procedure for firstly checking generic identification and then testing identifiability. This approach canbe...

A unit root test is usually carried out by using the regression test introduced by Dickey and Fuller (1979). Under the null hypothesis the series should be a random walk. But a non-stationary series can usually be decomposed into a random walk and a stationary component. This is what is done in...

In this article, a unified approach to automatic modeling for univariate series is presented. First, ARIMA models and the classical methods for fitting these models to a given time series are reviewed. Second, some objective methods for model identification are considered and some algorithmical...

In this paper we investigate the properties of the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) in the presence of additive outliners (AO's). We show analytically that both the asymptotic size and power are adversely...

In some cases the unit root or near unit root behavior of linear autoregressive models fitted to economic time series is not in accordance with the underlying economic theory. To accommodate this feature we consider a threshold autoregressive process with the threshold effect only in the...