This year and next, global GDP will grow more strongly than expected. The growth rate should be just under four percent. In developed economies, the continuing improvement in the job market situation will drive consumption. Corporate investment activity will also gain momentum. Over the forecast...

The upswing of the German economy continues and since the beginning of 2017, even at a somewhat faster pace. Sharp gains in employment are still driving consumption. And companies are investing significantly more in machines and facilities. Many global risks that previously limited the...

This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...