We consider whether survey density forecasts (such as the inflation and output growth histograms of the US Survey of Professional Forecasters) are superior to unconditional density forecasts. The unconditional forecasts assume that the average level of uncertainty experienced in the past will...

"Bringing together the recent advances and innovative methods in macroeconomic forecasting, this erudite Handbook outlines how to forecast, including following world events such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. With contributions from global experts, chapters explore the...

Dieses Lehrbuch zur makroökonomischen Theorie betrachtet die Einkommens-, Zins- und Beschäftigungstheorie, die Analyse von Inflation und Unterbeschäftigung und die Wachstumstheorie durchgängig aus keynesianscher Sicht. Es konfrontiert die dabei erzielten Aussagen und Ergebnisse insbesondere...

In this paper we set up a baseline, but nevertheless advanced and complete model representing detailed goods market dynamics, heterogeneous labor markets, dual and cross-dual wage-price adjustment processes, as well as counter-cyclical government policies. The cyclical movements of output...