An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous quot;Probability Approach in Econometricsquot; (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and...

This paper is an empirically based discussion of interactions between speculative behavior in the currency markets and aggregate fluctuations in the real economy. It builds on the recent theory of Imperfect Knowledge Economics in Frydman and Goldberg (2007) and combines this with the Structural...