The economy often moves in large jumps. For example, bank runs can quickly cause an economy to suddenly drop into a deep recession. In this paper, bank approval of loans to a genius entrepreneur may cause an economy to jump to a higher income level or growth rate. In a simple model, this implies...

This is a theoretic and econometric assessment of Peter Ferderer’s seminal paper published in the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics with the same title in 1993. New data shows that high forecaster discords coincide with a decrease in Investment expenditure. Specifically, the forecaster...

Immigration has been a significant part of US population growth over recent decades, with the number of ``foreign born to non-US nationals" rising from approximately 10 million in 1970 to nearly 40 million or 12.9% of the US total population in 2010. In this paper, using a VAR with sign...

This paper discusses non-exponential growth patterns of macroeconomic models. More specifically, the paper discusses asymptotic growth patterns of the numbers of clusters and of components of partition vectors, that is, the number of clusters of specific sizes, of one- and two-parameter Poisson-...

In recent papers it is shown that in the presence of price stickiness, investment and capital accumulation activity, active monetary policy (MP) rules can lead to indeterminacy under various assumptions about the structure of the model. We analyze the conditions for real indeterminacy to occur...

Purpose – The latest generation of research into macroeconomic policy has turned from more technical aspects of optimal control and expectations formation to consideration of the policymaking institutions themselves. More and more countries have moved towards greater degrees of central bank...

The characteristics that distinguish most developing countries, compared to large industrialized countries, include: greater exposure to supply shocks in general and trade volatility in particular, procyclicality of both domestic fiscal policy and international finance, lower credibility with...

The research in this paper is focus on macroeconomic analysis of trade and other relevant indicator for real economy such as government net debt, exchange rate, interest rate, and especially the correlation between trade and growth. Today is widely accepted that openness of counties have...

Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...