Uncertainty in applied macroeconomic policy analysis arises from three distinct sources. The first, often referred to as model uncertainty, arises because the models used for policy analysis are simple abstractions of the complex behavioural interactions that occur in an economy. The second...

This paper outlines how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) is used to prepare the quarterly economic projections. In addition to a very brief overview of the system, the paper focuses on four key issues. First, the current methodology for incorporating a...