Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only...

We present a selection of seminar slides based on our 2013 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper, "https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1640552" Managerial Miscalibration. Using a large panel of CFO forecasts of S&P 500 returns, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated,...

Purpose: Are board ties among competitors harmful to customers? The prevalent assumption on board ties among competitors is that they harm customer benefits. This study examines the mechanism by which board ties with competitors result in an outcome conducive to customers....

This paper uses worldwide firm-level data to scrutinize the governance factors that favor gender diversity in leadership positions. Our results reveal that the gender of the dominant shareholder is key. The chief executive of firms with a female dominant shareholder has a significantly higher...

Influenced by their compensation plans, CEOs make their own luck through decisions that affect future firm risk. After adopting a relative performance evaluation (RPE) plan, total and idiosyncratic risk are higher, and the correlation between firm and industry performance is lower. The opposite...

This paper examines the effect of gender in corporate leadership on the performance and risk of Vietnamese listed firms. We find that firms with female CEOs generate higher profitability than those with male CEOs. In addition, firms led by female CEOs experience less systematic and idiosyncratic...

We examine how the trade shock from China influences the behavior and investment performance of overconfident CEOs in U.S. firms. We show that the rise of Chinese import competition curbs investments and improves investment value and acquisition performance for firms with overconfident CEOs....

This paper proposes a new approach to study how corporate policies change upon the replacement of the CEO. We employ empirical Bayes simultaneous tests on the executive fixed effects and find a significant heterogeneity in their styles. Furthermore, we implement a measure that explores the...

Prior theoretical work generates conflicting predictions with respect to how CEO age impacts risk-taking behavior. Consistent with the prediction that risk-taking behavior decreases as CEOs become older, I document a negative relation between CEO age and stock return volatility. Further analyses...