We develop a systematic approach to Markovian projection onto an effective displaced diffusion, and work out a set of computationally efficient formulas valid for a large class of non-Markovian underlying processes. The generic derivation is followed by applications, including the calculation of...

We propose a new model for the dynamics of the aggregate credit portfolio loss. The model is Markovian in two dimensions with the state variables being the total accumulated loss Lt and the stochastic default intensity λt. The dynamics of the default intensity are governed by the equation...