Using the SPI relative to 67 years data sets, a Markov chains approach has been utilized for several locations in Alentejo, southern Portugal, to characterize the stochasticity of droughts, which allowed predicting the transition from a class of severity to another up to 3 months ahead. Markov...

This paper aims at the stochastic characterization of droughts applying Markov chains modeling to drought class transitions derived from SPI time series. Several sites in Southern Portugal having updated data on precipitation available were considered. The drought class probabilities, the...