Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Empirical data analysis shows that the business cycles of industrialized nations demonstrate a fairly strong degree of synchronization in periods of growth, and a lesser degree of synchronization during periods of contraction. The current recession, however, breaks this pattern: the business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601280
In früheren Konjunkturzyklen war zu beobachten, dass sich ein Aufschwung in den Industriestaaten recht gleichmäßig verbreitete, während bei Rezessionen ein weniger ausgeprägter Gleichlauf zu beobachten war. In der derzeitigen Krise ist das allerdings anders: Sie zeichnet sich nicht nur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602054
Summary Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609025
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963987
In früheren Konjunkturzyklen war zu beobachten, dass sich ein Aufschwung in den Industriestaaten recht gleichmäßig verbreitete, während bei Rezessionen ein weniger ausgeprägter Gleichlauf zu beobachten war. In der derzeitigen Krise ist das allerdings anders: Sie zeichnet sich nicht nur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005026850
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668440
A simple backward-looking Taylor rule is estimated in a time-varying coefficient framework with quarterly German data for the period 1975-1998. Markov switching models and the Kalman Filter are used to extract the unobservable paths of the coefficients. The main finding is that the inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005345361
Empirical data analysis shows that the business cycles of industrialized nations demonstrate a fairly strong degree of synchronization in periods of growth, and a lesser degree of synchronization during periods of contraction. The current recession, however, breaks this pattern: the business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587766