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Global and Asset Class Diversified ETF Portfolio Strategy - A Convex Mean/CVaR Optimization Approach using Dynamic Copulas with Flexible Probabilities

Mantesso F, Flavio; Ahmed, Joe; Flores, Mauro - 2023

One of the most important factors to control for the achievements of investment portfolio returns is risk. If we only think that a 100% positive return is needed to recover a portfolio loss of 50%, we can understand why. With the advent of the exponential growth of technology usage in markets,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254526

Genetic Algorithm Calibration of Seasonal BVAR Models

Quilis, Enrique M. - 2015

In this paper we explore the use of Genetic Algorithms (GA) to calibrate seasonal BVAR models. In this way, the mechanistic use of seasonal adjustment procedures is avoided, since seasonality becomes a structural, basic and explicit part of the BVAR model. At the same time, the use of GA allows...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014132203

Currency Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH

Chang, Chia-Lin - 2012

volatility for estimating conditional variances and covariances; (2) alternative currencies; and (3) alternative maturities of … Chang et al. [17], we estimate four multivariate volatility models (namely CCC, VARMA-AGARCH, DCC and BEKK), and calculate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113663

Crude Oil Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH

Tansuchat, Roengchai - 2010

The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for … the optimal portfolio weights of all multivariate volatility models for Brent suggest holding futures in larger … volatility model give the time-varying hedge ratios, and recommend to short in crude oil futures with a high proportion of one …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149486

Ethanol Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH

Garcia, Sergio - 2016

Ethanol has been the subject of intense debate following the adoption of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) which established that the gasoline supply in the United States (U.S.) must contain 10% ethanol. This work seeks to identify hedging ratios using dynamic multivariate GARCH to best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979327

SV mixture : classification using EM algorithm

Hachicha, Ahmed; Hachicha, Fatma; Masmoudi, Afif - 2013

a mixture stochastic volatility model providing a tractable method for capturing certain market characteristics. To … estimate the parameter of a mixture stochastic volatility model, we first use the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009755511

Positivity constraints on the conditional variances in the family of conditional correlation GARCH models

Nakatani, Tomoaki (contributor); … - 2007

to introduce negative volatility spillovers in the model. An empirical example illustrates usefulness of having such …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003576679

Estimating Dynamic Conditional Spread Densities to Optimise Daily Storage Trading of Electricity

Abramova, Ekaterina; Bunn, Derek W. - 2019

This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast electricity price spreads between different hours of the day. This supports an optimal day ahead storage and discharge schedule, and thereby facilitates a bidding strategy for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014107616

Parallel Algorithms of Global Optimization in Identification of an Economic Model

Olenev, Nicholas - 2016

The paper proposes and approves new criteria for proximity of statistical and computational economic indexes, their convolution, which are used in indirect estimation of parameters of economic models. Parallel algorithms of global optimization to identify the parameters of these models are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000744

Lasso-Type and Heuristic Strategies in Model Selection and Forecasting

Savin, Ivan - 2012

Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to apply a regularization strategy and solve the model selection task as a continuous optimization problem. One of the most popular approaches in this research field is given by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099334