Showing 1 - 10 of 2,068
idiosyncratic risk can be removed through some device of aggregation or diversification when such risk is explicitly introduced into …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014194823
This paper provides a new index of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The index measures the dispersion of forecasts resulting from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226308
Many commentators argue that uncertainty about tax, spending, monetary and regulatory policy slowed the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To investigate this we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), built on three components: the frequency of newspaper references to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064762
riskiness to continuous random variables. For many continuous random variables, the risk measure is equal to the worst-case risk … measure, i.e. the maximal possible loss incurred by that gamble. We also extend the Foster-Hart risk measure to dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010342818
The preliminary evidence in the literature suggests that changes in uncertainty have a role in shaping the U.S. economic cycle. But what is effectively measured by the different available indicators of uncertainty still remains an "uncertain" issue. This paper has two aims: (i) to introduce a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705516
We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical … tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after … geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011854666
strategy runs the risk of becoming a statistical artefact with little relevance to the welfare of the poor. This paper begins …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014059654
Although uncertainty plays an important role in economic decisionmaking, empirical measures of individuals' uncertainty are rare. The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972054
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831182
characteristics of China into consideration, which turns out to be aptly reflecting historical risk events. Based on the constructed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864130