In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output. Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an...

Modeling North American Economic Integration presents descriptions of the models and the central results obtained by four teams of economic modelers who analyze the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the economies of Canada, Mexico and the USA. Preliminary versions of...