This paper itemises the current and developing roles of modelling in health economic evaluation and discusses its value in each role. We begin by noting the emptiness of the dichotomy that some commentators have sought to create between modelling and controlled trials as mechanisms for informing...

In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are...