This paper provides a comprehensive study of the interplay between the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and overnight interest rates. We model both the supply of and the demand for excess reserves, treating assets of the Federal Reserve as policy tools, and estimate the effects of conventional...

Summarizing Hendry's forty years of work on taming uncertainty is "clear and distinct": Test, test, test. Sure - but test what? Test the maintained assumptions of the disturbances. Test the parameter restrictions of a given model. Test the explanatory power of a model against a rival model. In...

Note: This is a description of the paper and not the abstract as it appeared in the print journal. We use the transcripts from FOMC meetings over 1984-91 to characterize the interactions between policymakers and builders of macro models in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy. We develop a...