The potential benefits of small surveys of the economy are well known -- surveys can supply measures of economic activity quickly and at a relatively low cost. But potential drawbacks are also recognized, namely that small samples may produce predominantly noise and, because of the types of data...

How well does the market for Federal Funds Futures predict? Statistical estimates of the market's efficiency in predicting FOMC policy actions indicate that the forecasts contain useful information and are unbiased at the usual 5 percent level. That finding is of interest because it means that...

This paper develops a general equilibrium monetary model with performance incentives to study the inflation-unemployment relationship. A long-run downward-sloping Phillips curve can exist with perfectly anticipated inflation because workers’ incentive to exert effort depend on financial market...

In many countries, government-budget surpluses have led to a decline in the amount of federal government debt outstanding. This paper considers the consequences of this development for a central bank that conducts monetary policy through open market operations in treasury debt. A model is...

This paper considers whether eliminating the stock of government debt outstanding would reduce welfare. It models an economy with three assets—currency, government bonds, and storage, a transactions role for money, and a demand for liquidity and thus a role for banks. The Friedman rule is not...