An explanation of P-Star, evaluating its usefulness both as an indicator of potential inflation and as a method of assessing the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of price stability.

An assessment of the usefulness of a real-interest-rate guidepost for communicating long-term monetary policy intentions to the public. The author contends that because of inherent complexities in the relationship between real interest rates and policy objectives, a policy framework expressed in...

This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC...

How well did the federal funds futures market anticipate recent monetary policy actions? The authors examine the predictive content of fed funds futures rates, which provide the Federal Open Market Committee with a clear reading of market expectations for policy, in the context of 1994 policy...

An overview of monetary policy developments in 1993, discussed in the context of the longer-term objective of price stability.

An examination of credit flow rechanneling away from depository institutions over the past decade in response to evolving financial markets and regulatory structure, and a discussion of how this trend has complicated monetary policymaking.

A description of the Federal Reserve monetary policy framework, with a suggestion that a multiyear nominal income target be viewed as a practical extension of current policy procedures.

An examination of monetary policy actions before and after 1982, illustrating that prompt federal funds rate increases aimed at maintaining a low inflation environment are associated with subsequent robust economic growth, not with weak growth, as is commonly thought.

This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw, and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker’s preferences for price vs. output stability, the...

A history and analysis of the debate about whether monetary policy should be conducted by rules known in advance to all or by policymaker discretion.