This article studies the estimation of state space models whose parameters are switching endogenously between two regimes, depending on whether an autoregressive latent factor crosses some threshold level. Endogeneity stems from the sustained impacts of transition innovations on the latent...

This article studies the estimation of state space models whose parameters are switching endogenously between two regimes, depending on whether an autoregressive latent factor crosses some threshold level. Endogeneity stems from the sustained impacts of transition innovations on the latent...

Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and interactions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful measure of oil market risk (or oil price uncertainty) for policy makers and...

We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime interactions in a model, where regimes are determined by latent autoregressive policy factors with endogenous feedback. Policy regimes interact strongly: Shocks that switch one policy from active to passive tend to induce the other policy to...

We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a regime-switching model of monetary and fiscal policy rules where policy mixes are determined by a latent bivariate autoregressive process consisting of monetary and fiscal policy regime factors, each determining a respective policy...