How has the impact of wars affected our historical understanding of U.S. economic performance? While most economists believe the Federal Reserve has improved performance, the existing literature fails to account for exogenous shocks such as periods of war. This paper compares U.S. economic...

This paper finds that U.S. economic performance has not generally improved under the Federal Reserve, with the possible exception of the Great Moderation. We analyze the Fed and pre-Fed periods in terms of the rates and volatilities of inflation and real GDP growth. Comparing the pre-Fed periods...

We use a simple model to illustrate that nominal GDP targeting might produce a suboptimal equilibrium if there is a growth-maximizing rate of inflation. Following a shock, we find that targeting nominal GDP might result in lower real GDP growth than the economy could sustainably produce given...

Many economists, including former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, believe that the gold standard generates poor economic outcomes including output volatility, price instability, financial panics, the spread of recessions via the exchange rate, and speculation-induced collapse. These problems,...

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions rely on economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) staff. This paper analyzes the forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment by the FRB staff and the FOMC from 2009 through 2016. Forecasts for the current year are positively...

We provide an initial assessment of the Federal Reserve's policy response to the COVID-19 contraction. We briefly review the historical episode and consider the standard textbook treatment of a pandemic on the macroeconomy. We summarize and then evaluate the Fed's monetary and emergency lending...