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We greatly expand the space of tractable term-structure models. We consider one example that combines positive yields with rich volatility and correlation dynamics. Bond prices are expressed in closed form and estimation is straightforward. We find that the early stages of a recession have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408691
The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011576374
We build a model for bond yields based on a small-scale representation of an economy with secular declines in inflation, the real rate and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that influence long-run inflation but do not influence the long-run real rate or output growth....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012488074
In times of stress, if the potential demand from asset managers for market liquidity approaches or exceeds dealers' ability to intermediate, it could lead to a precautionary but disruptive dash for cash and may lead central banks to intervene. If the likelihood of such a dash for cash increases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015329860
We provide a novel daily decomposition of the real exchange rate that exploits a direct link between bond and foreign exchange (FX) markets. Real exchange rate dynamics can be attributed to changes in the expected future level of the exchange rate; cross-country differentials of expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013175434
This paper focuses on whether monetary policy has asymmetric effects. By building on the Markov switching model introduced by Hamilton (1989), we examine questions like: Does monetary policy have the same effect regardless of the current phase of economic fluctuations? Given that the economy is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005168999
We propose a price-setting model which helps reconcile microeconomic evidence of relatively frequent and large price changes with persistent real effects of monetary shocks. In our model, both price adjustments and the gathering of some types of information are costly, requiring the payment of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903467