The paper makes an attempt to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on the economy. We estimate four variables VAR system with industrial production, CPI, money market rate and exchange rate. Two policy indicators: money market interest rate and exchange rate are assumed to be...

In this paper I estimate a Bayesian structural VAR models for the Czech Republic and Poland, allowing for changes in parameters between the two monetary policy arrangements. The four-variables structural VAR methodology adopted in the study is successful in identifying monetary policy shocks and...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

We analyze the European Central Bank''s (ECB''s) response to the global financial crisis. Our results suggest that even during the crisis, the core part of ECB''s monetary policy transmission-from policy rates to market rates-has continued to operate, but at a decreased efficiency. We also find...

The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also,...

This paper analyzes the monetary policy response to rising inflation in emerging and developing countries associated with the food and oil price shocks in 2007 and the first half of 2008. It reviews inflation developments in a sample of countries covering all regions and a broad range of...