we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …

-varying compensation for expected and unexpected inflation shocks embedded in the sovereign bond yields of Germany, France, Japan and the … United States. Our empirical results suggest that the current environment of very low nominal sovereign bond yields, is a …

A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond …, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a … model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on bonds with credit risk and bond demand shocks induce funding risk …

Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage …-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bondspecific safety premia, we find that … Sveriges Riksbank's bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and …

) approach. Keynes held that the central bank exerts decisive influence on government bond yields because the central bank … government bonds' nominal yields. Furthermore, the effect of the budget balance ratio on government bond yields is small but … statistically significant. However, there is no statistically discernable effect of the debt ratio on government bond yields. …

policy implications for the e17.5 trillion European pension and insurance industries: long maturity bond yields seem …

depend on the type and nature of the surprise and change over time. Decomposing bond yields into expected short-term interest … rates and the term premium reveals that both signalling and portfolio rebalancing effects explain the responses of bond … important to Swiss government bond yields than Swiss stock prices …

We investigate the synchronization of Eurozone's government bond yields at different maturities. For this purpose, we …