This study empirically investigates the drivers of inflation in Ethiopia using monthly data from July 1998 to September 2020. It explores short-run and long-run effects of domestic and external determinants of inflation-including demand-side, supply-side, and structural factors-using the...

This paper examines under what conditions fiscal policy in the form of government spending should contribute to macroeconomic stabilisation.  To this end optimal fiscal targeting rules minimising the microfounded social loss are examined in the following settings.  Firstly, for the benchmark...

We consider optimal monetary and fiscal policies in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy with sticky prices and wages.  In this benchmark setting monetary policy is all we need - analytical results demonstrate that variations in government spending should play no role in the...

We defend the forecasting performance of the FOMC from the recent criticism of Christina and David Romer.  Our argument is that the FOMC forecasts a worst-case scenario that it uses to design decisions that will work well enough (are robust) despite possible misspecification of its model. ...

Recent attempts to incorporate optimal fiscal policy into New Keynesian models subject to nominal inertia, have tended to assume that policy makers are benevolent and have access to a commitment technology.  A separate literature, on the New Political Economy, has focused on real economies...

Disinflationary episodes are a valuable source of information for economic agents trying to learn about the economy.  This paper is especially interested in how a policymaker can themselves learn by disinflating.  The approach differs from the existing literature, which typically focuses on...

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We...

In this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate...

This paper presents a simple model of risk-averse banks that face uncertainty over funding conditions in the money market.  It shows when increased funding uncertainty causes interest rates on loans and deposits to rise, while bank lending and bank profitability fall.  It also finds that...