We propose that the formation of beliefs be treated as statistical hypothesis tests, and label such beliefs inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned due to sufficient contrarian evidence, we assume agents switch to the rational expectation. We build a state dependent Phillips curve,...

We incorporate inferential expectations into the Barro-Gordon model (1983a) of time inconsistency and consider reputational equilibria. The range of sustainable equilibria shrinks as the private sector becomes more belief-conservative

A puzzle from the Great Recession is an apparent mismatch between a fall in the persistence of European inflation rates, and the increased variability of expert forecasts of inflation. We explain this puzzle and show how country specific beliefs about inflation are still quite close to the...

This paper examines under what conditions fiscal policy in the form of government spending should contribute to macroeconomic stabilisation.  To this end optimal fiscal targeting rules minimising the microfounded social loss are examined in the following settings.  Firstly, for the benchmark...

We consider optimal monetary and fiscal policies in a New Keynesian model of a small open economy with sticky prices and wages.  In this benchmark setting monetary policy is all we need - analytical results demonstrate that variations in government spending should play no role in the...