This paper uses disaggregated CPI time series to show that a break in the mean of French inflation occurred in the mid-eighties and that the 1983 monetary policy shift mostly accounted for it. CPI average yearly growth declined from nearly 11% before the break date (May 1985) to 2.1% after. No...

This paper employs the recently developed structural stability tests with unknown break point and two median unbiased estimation methods to model China inflation persistence over the most recent quarter of a century. Our empirical results suggest that the persistence of both consumer price...

This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a...

In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflation persistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylor rule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflation and the output gap, we show that the...

This comprehensive study delves into the Harmonised Consumer Price Index (HCPI) behavior across European economies from the early 2000s to the post-pandemic period. By analyzing the patterns of convergence and divergence in HCPI persistence, the study aims to uncover the common external and...

The expectations trap hypothesis is an influential but untested model of monetary policy. The hypothesis conjectures that high inflation during the 1970s was the outcome of a shift in private sector beliefs which were then validated by monetary policy. The subsequent fall in inflation was mainly...

It is commonly asserted that inflation is a jump variable in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and thus wage-price inertia does not imply inflation inertia. We show that this "inflation flexibility proposition" is highly misleading, relying on the assumption that real variables are exogenous. In...

Challenging the conventional wisdom that structural problems are to blame for the euro area’s protracted domestic demand stagnation, this paper sets out to shed some fresh light on the role of the ECB in the ongoing EMU crisis. Contrary to the widely held interpretation of the ECB as an...

Rational expectations models of staggered price/wage contracts have failed to replicate the observed persistence in inflation and unemployment during disinflation periods. The current literature on this persistency puzzle has focused on augmenting the nominal contract model with imperfect...

It is commonly asserted that inflation is a jump variable in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and thus wage-price inertia does not imply inflation inertia. We show that this "inflation flexibility proposition" is highly misleading, relying on the assumption that real variables are exogenous. In...