The Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy is an influential but untested model of optimal monetary policy. We provide the first tests of the model, using US data from 1983Q1-2004Q1. Our results support the Opportunistic Approach. We find that policymakers respond to the gap between inflation...

We estimate a flexible non-linear monetary policy rule for the UK to examine the response of policymakers to the real exchange rate. We have three main findings. First, policymakers respond to real exchange rate misalignment rather than to the real exchange rate itself. Second, policymakers...

This paper analyses the impact of uncertainty on monetary policy rules in the US since the early 1980s. Extending the Taylor rule to allow the response of interest rates to inflation and the output gap to depend on uncertainty, we find evidence that the predictions of the theoretical literature...

We analyse UK monetary policy using monthly data for 1992–2010. We have two main findings. First, the Taylor rule breaks down after 2007 as the estimated response to inflation falls markedly and becomes insignificant. Second, policy is best described as a weighted average of a “financial...

Although policymakers and commentators have repeatedly stressed the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on the setting of interest rates, the academic literature has largely ignored this issue. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of how uncertainty about the true...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the response of monetary policymakers to uncertainty. Using data for the UK since the introduction of inflation targets in October 1992, we find that the impact of inflation on interest rates is lower when inflation is more uncertain and is larger when...

This paper assesses the impact of economic policy uncertainty to UK monetary policy stance and exchange rate movements in light of the UK's decision to leave the European Union. Our results show that the economic significance of exchange rate movements heightens during the Referendum period. We...