We study how monetary policy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers inflation expectations in real time. In a large-scale, multi-wave randomized controlled trial (RCT), we find weak evidence that communicating these policy changes lowers...

We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

Remittance inflows are driven by macroeconomic conditions in the home and the host economies, respectively. In this paper, we study the effect of US monetary policy on remittance flows into economies in Latin American and the Caribbean. The role of Fed policy for remittances has not yet been...

Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed...

This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank's profit and loss...

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in the euro area sharply increased spending while the European Central Bank eased financing conditions. We use this episode to assess how such a concerted monetary-fiscal stimulus redistributes welfare between various age cohorts. Our assessment involves...

This paper examines how monetary and macroprudential policies interact and possibly complement each other in achieving their respective price and financial stability objectives. We first review the Canadian experience of housing market cycles and highlight the need to coordinate the two sets of...

We analyse cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970-2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich time-series decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. "Rate cycles" have gradually evolved over time, with less frequent cyclical...

The Fed's policy rule shifts during different phases of the business cycle, particularly in relation to monetary easing and tightening phases. This finding is established through a dynamic mixture model, which estimates regime-dependent Taylor-type rules using US quarterly data from 1960 to...