We study the time-varying nature of US monetary policies summarized by the Taylor rule based on a continuous-time regime-switching term structure model. In this model, the spot rate follows the Taylor rule and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no-arbitrage. We allow the...

We study the time-varying nature of US monetary policies summarized by the Taylor rule based on a continuous-time regime-switching term structure model. In this model, the spot rate follows the Taylor rule and government bonds at different maturities are priced by no-arbitrage. We allow the...

Single-equation estimates of fiscal reaction functions, which relate primary surpluses to past debt-GDP ratios and control variables, are subject to potentially serious simultaneity bias that can produce misleading inferences about fiscal behavior. Biases arise from failure to model the general...

Single-equation estimates of fiscal reaction functions, which relate primary surpluses to past debt-GDP ratios and control variables, are subject to potentially serious simultaneity bias that can produce misleading inferences about fiscal behavior. Biases arise from failure to model the general...