This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time reaction to and interpretation of incoming data in 2021, and the pivot to raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet that commenced in 2022 and continues in 2023. Particular...

This paper highlights some of the theoretical and practical implications for monetary policy and exchange rates that derive specifically from the presence of a global general equilibrium factor embedded in neutral real policy rates in open economies. Using a standard two country DSGE model, we...

This paper examines the 2021-2022 global inflation surge and the belated but aggressive monetary policy response to it by advanced economy central banks. Drawing on body of recent empirical research, it identifies three primary drivers of the global inflation surge: supply shocks from pandemic...