We construct recursive solutions for, and study the properties of the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with three types of agents: (i) house-hold/investors who supply labor with a finite elasticity, consume a large variety of goods that are not perfect substitutes and trade government bonds;...

Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the seventies and eighties, real M1 is still the best predictor. It clearly outperforms interest rate-based forecasts, and within this group short-run interest rates...