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implications to risk-based asset allocation. Using a regime-switching model that controls for the economic effects of monetary … policy we identify three co-movement regimes. We document that risk-based portfolio strategies poorly perform in the low … high stock market risk and a very accommodating Fed policy. Less effectiveness is demonstrated under the positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996001
With 30% of the world's investment grade sovereign bonds trading at sub-zero yields, there is a growing acceptance that negative interest rates are the 'new normal.' Even very low probabilities of sustained negative interest rates in the future leads to incredibly high Expected Values for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846686
Bank represent a risk factor for the hedge fund industry as a whole and for ten commonly used strategies in particular …. Using modified event studies and Markov switching models, we find that UMP announcements represent a risk factor for … through breaks in the parameters of the conventional risk factors. Using Chow and Bai-Perron tests, we find that for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828359
Micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models appear to be particularly suited for evaluating the consequences of alternative macroeconomic policies. Recently, increasing efforts have been undertaken by policymakers to use these models for forecasting, although this proved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079672
We develop a flexible modeling framework to produce density nowcasts for US inflation at a trading-day frequency. Our framework: (1) combines individual density nowcasts from three classes of parsimonious mixed-frequency models; (2) adopts a novel flexible treatment in the use of the aggregation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014091500
This paper examines the evolution of credit risk arising from monetary policy operations and ELA on the Eurosystem … balance sheet over the last decade. We employ a dynamic, market-driven risk model relying on the expected default frequencies … multivariate Student t distribution with time-varying parameters. We find that at the end of 2020, risk is slightly above its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292599
This paper presents a portfolio model of asset price effects arising from large-scale asset purchases by central banks — commonly known as quantitative easing (QE). Two financial frictions, segmentation of the market for central bank reserves and imperfect asset substitutability, give rise to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012992570
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds ofdifferent maturities …. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rateenvironment by estimating a market stochastic discount … literature. Weprovide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed tointerest rate risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836549
In this paper we study the role of household portfolio rebalancing channel for the aggregate and redistributive effects of monetary policy. The transmission of monetary policy works not only through the usual income and substitution motives, but also through an endogenous portfolio rebalancing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321564
Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors. We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528264