Showing 1 - 10 of 27,138
We study the effects of monetary policy surprises (MPSs) on corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Using high-frequency surprises around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, we find a negative relation between changes in unexpected expansionary monetary policy and changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240252
This paper examines the patterns of trading behaviour, in the period surrounding monetary policy announcements. Utilizing a high-frequency data-set, with broker identifiers enabling classification of trades executed through institutional and retail brokers, I investigate all trades submitted on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971303
Are yields of long-maturity bonds distorted by demand pressure of clientele investors, regulatory effects, or default, flight-to-safety or liquidity premiums? Using data on German nominal bonds between 2005 and 2015, we study the differential pricing and liquidity of short and long maturity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940016
The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a "path" factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is highest when it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011576374
I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach and Autometrics can overcome the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns regressed on macroeconomic announcements. The typical specification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928522
We show that U.S. corporate bond market movements during the days preceding FOMC announcements can predict monetary policy surprises, as well as the pre-FOMC stock market movements. Starting several days before an expansionary (contractionary) surprise in FOMC decisions, corporate bond prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011993517
This article proposes an overview of the usefulness of the regime switching approach for building various kinds of bond pricing models and of the roles played by the regimes in these models. Both default-free and defaultable bonds are considered. The regimes can be used to capture stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074171
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842446
We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011963607
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313733