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This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a...
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This paper analyzes the pillar of modern central bank governance, i.e. central bank independence, highlighting three contributions. First, we provide a systematic review of the economics of central bank independence. Second, using a principal agent model we design a political economy framework,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004944
The recent consensus view, that the gold standard was the leading cause of the worldwide Great Depression 1929-33, stems from two propositions: (1) Under the gold standard, deflationary shocks were transmitted between countries and, (2) for most countries, continued adherence to gold prevented...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222903
This paper analyzes the pillar of the modern central bank governance – independence – offering three contributions. After a systematic review of the economics of central bank independence, a principal agent model is used to design a political economy framework, which explains how the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061682
Shocks to capital utilization are introduced in a structural macroeconomic closed-economy model with financial frictions to capture disruptions on the ability of the capital stock to provide capital services used in production. Estimates for the Euro Area and the United States show that these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014345602
–“natural rate theory”- dominated interpretations of economic trends and policy prescriptions since the 1970s. Public policy …. Economic trends were filtered through the lens of the “natural rate theory,” focusing on labor market institutions only and … confronts the economic trends with the interpretations of the “natural rate theory” and argues that they hardly fitting the …
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