We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model...

We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation. Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation. The model...

Nominal interest rates fell to record-low levels globally in the decades prior to the pandemic. Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan, stand out by having adopted negative interest rate policies (NIRP). In this paper, we document that these economies have high...

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

This paper uses high frequency data to detect shifts in financial markets' perception of the Federal Reserve stance on inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that...

Nominal interest rates fell to record-low levels globally in the decades prior to the pandemic. Five economies, Denmark, the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden and Japan, stand out by having adopted negative interest rate policies (NIRP). In this paper, we document that these economies have high...

This economic memo investigates the drivers of the Danish-German 10-year yield spread, which has widened 25 basis points since January 2020. The widening is found to be driven mainly by larger collateral scarcity of German sovereign bonds due to the ECB's significant bond purchases and a...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...