Showing 1 - 10 of 2,396
Operational risk management remains a major concern for financial institutions. Indeed, institutions are bound to manage their own funds to hedge this risk. In this paper, we propose an approach to allocate one's own funds based on a combination of historical data and expert opinion using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012168944
Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023705
Over the last decade, agent-based models in economics have reached a state of maturity that brought the tasks of statistical inference and goodness-of-fit of such models on the agenda of the research community. While most available papers have pursued a frequentist approach adopting either...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012164264
The paper proposes a new Monte-Carlo simulator combining the advantages of Sequential Monte Carlo simulators and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulators. The result is a method that is robust to multimodality and complex shapes to use for inference in presence of difficult likelihoods or target...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935032
the draws used for simulation as a latent variable to be augmented in the Bayesian framework; see Flury and Shephard (2011 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011757715
This paper shows how to bootstrap hypothesis tests in the context of the Parks (Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated 1967) estimator. It then demonstrates that the bootstrap outperforms Parks's top...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012018487
This paper shows how to bootstrap hypothesis tests in the context of the Parks’s (1967) Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimator. It then demonstrates that the bootstrap outperforms FGLS(Parks)’s top competitor. The FGLS(Parks) estimator has been a workhorse for the analysis of panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012160012
We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354141
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014479201
This paper estimates the parameters of a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, paying special attention to the issue of weak parameter identification. Given the model and the available data, the posterior estimates of the weakly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014212315