We provide a sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating rare-event probabilities in dynamic, intensity-based point process models of portfolio credit risk. The method is based on a change of measure and involves a resampling mechanism. We propose resampling weights that lead, under technical...

Dynamic, intensity based point process models are widely used to measure and price the correlated default risk in portfolios of credit-sensitive assets such as loans and corporate bonds. Monte Carlo simulation is an important tool to perform computations in these models. This paper develops,...

Risk management applications often require estimating the tail distribution of total default losses on a portfolio of credit-sensitive positions such as loans and corporate bonds. This paper develops, analyzes and tests an importance sampling estimator of large-loss probabilities. The estimator...

We develop and analyze a class of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators for multivariate jump-diffusion processes with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity and jump size. A change of measure argument is used to extend existing unbiased estimators for the inter-arrival diffusion to include...