Mortality risk models have been developed to capture trends and common factors driving mortality improvement. Multiple factor models take many forms and are often developed and fitted to older ages. In order to capture trends from young ages it is necessary to take into account the richer age...

In this study we derive a novel multi-population LC type model. Specifically, we extend the Bayesian model in czado et. al. (2005) to allow exchangeability between parameters of a group of m populations. In a validation-based examination, the proposed model was found to be beneficial for several...

This paper extends the widely used Lee Carter (LC) model (Lee & Carter, 1992) for mortality projection. We suggest a random walk with drift to model the time parameter of the Bayesian extension of the LC model suggested in Czado et al. (2005). In a validation-based examination, the proposed...

Longevity risk arising from uncertain mortality improvement is one of the major risks facing annuity providers and pension funds. In this paper we show how applying trend models from non-life claims reserving to age-period-cohort mortality trends provides new insight in estimating mortality...

Modeling mortality and longevity risk presents challenges because of the impact of improvements at different ages and the existence of common trends. Modeling cause of death mortality rates is even more challenging since trends and age effects are more diverse. Despite this, successfully...

Mortality rates have shown significant improvements in countries around the world over a lengthy period. Trends have varied by country and by age, despite common improvements. An analysis of changes in causes of death provides a better understanding of the underlying changes in mortality rates...

Mortality rates are known to vary by geographical location and to depend on socio-economic factors. Demographic, ethnic and socio-economic mortality factors vary by geographical location. Regions that are in closer proximity are expected to have similar mortality because of similar...

Longevity risk and the modeling of trends and volatility for mortality improvement has attracted increased attention driven by ageing populations around the world and the expected financial implications. The original Lee-Carter model that was used for longevity risk assessment included a single...