In this paper, we propose a new framework to coherently produce probabilistic mortality forecasts by exploiting techniques in seasonal time-series models, extreme value theory (EVT), and hierarchical forecast reconciliation. We are amongst the first to model and analyze U.S. monthly death counts...

This paper contributes to insurance risk management by modeling extreme climate risk and extreme mortality risk in an integrated manner via extreme value theory (EVT). We conduct an empirical study using monthly temperature and death data in the U.S., and nd that the joint extremes in cold...