The widely used methods for estimating adult mortality rates from sample survey responses about the survival of siblings, parents, spouses, and others depend crucially on an assumption that we demonstrate does not hold in real data. We show that when this assumption is violated - so that the...

Qualitative view -- Existing methods for forecasting mortality. Methods without covariates ; Methods with covariates -- Statistical modeling. The model ; Priors over grouped continuous variables ; Model selection ; Adding priors over time and space ; Comparisons and extensions -- Estimation....