Information criteria, nonlinearity, additive outliers, innovative outliers, change in persistence, outlier detection. - Informationskriterien, Nichtlinearität, additive Ausreißer, innovative Ausreißer, Persistenzbruch, Ausreißerermittlung

Bias correction, explosive behavior, non-linearity, model selection, persistence, specification testing. - Bias Korrektur, explosives Verhalten, Nichtlinearität, Modellselektion, Persistenz, Spezifikationstests

The business cycle has long been the focus of empirical economic research. Until recently statistical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations was dominated by linear time series methods. Over the past 15 years, however, economists have increasingly applied tractable parametric nonlinear time...