In many problems one wants to model the relationship between a response Y and a covariate X. Sometimes it is difficult, expensive, or even impossible to observe X directly, but one can instead observe a substitute variable W which is easier to obtain. By far the most common model for the...

In many problems one wants to model the relationship between a response Y and a covariate X. Sometimes it is difficult, expensive, or even impossible to observe X directly, but one can instead observe a substitute variable W which is easier to obtain. By far the most common model for the...

Hugh Hudson’s classic article on A Model of the Trade Cycle has never, to the best of our knowledge, received the serious attention it deserved (and deserves, even now, 55 years after its original publication). It was written in what we would like to call the classic Hicks-Kaldor mode, i.e.,...

This paper proposes a contemporaneous smooth transition threshold autoregressive model (C-STAR) as a modification of the smooth transition threshold autoregressive model surveyed in Teräsvirta (1998), in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probability that a latent regime-specific...

In this paper we exploit the specific structure of the Euler equation and develop two alternative GMM estimators that deal explicitly with measurement error. The first estimator assumes that the measurement error is lognormally distributed. The second estimator drops the distributional...

Consumers complain that retail prices of petroleum products increase instantly whenever prices of crude oil increase but take a long time to fall after crude oil price decreases. This apparent discrepancy attracts significant attention in the applied literature, as it might imply a welfare...

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G7 countries. The models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP, and their success in capturing business cycles is gauged by non-parametric...

A huge body of empirical and theoretical literature has emerged on the relationship between foreign exchange (FX) uncertainty and international trade. Empirical findings about the impact of FX uncertainty on trade figures are at best weak and often ambiguous with respect to its direction. Almost...

In this paper the long memory and non-linear properties of share prices in the UK’s Stock Exchange and AIM are explored. The results suggest that the most commonly traded shares exhibit long memory thus raising interesting issues about the validity of normal assumptions of market efficiencies.

The factors affecting the foreign trade have always interested the researchers. In comparison to the other factors, the effects of exchange rate on international trade are a variable that remains at the forefront. Therefore, the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on export and import has...