In this paper we use Monte Carlo testing techniques for testing linearity against the smooth transition models. The Monte Carlo approach allows us to introduce a new test that differs from the tests existing in the literature in two respects. First, the test is exact in the sense that the...

We propose a new method for medium-term forecasting using exogenous information. We first show how a shifting-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary...