A large literature on persistence finds that many modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. These studies typically combine unusually high t statistics with severe spatial autocorrelation in residuals, suggesting that some findings may be artefacts...

Statistical methods of spatial analysis are often successful at either prediction or explanation, but not necessarily both. In a recent paper, Dearmon and Smith (2016) showed that by combining Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), a modeling framework could be...

Bootstrap; Europäische Währungsunion; Frühwarnsystem; Makroökonomische Ungleichgewichte; Makroökonomische Überwachung; Penalized Splines; Risikoprämien auf Staatsschulden; Staatsschuldenkrise; Semiparametrische Regression; Signalansatz

Let Y be an outcome of interest, X a vector of treatment measures, and W a vector of pre-treatment control variables. Here X may include (combinations of) continuous, discrete, and/or non-mutually exclusive "treatments". Consider the linear regression of Y onto X in a subpopulation homogenous in...

Let H 0 (X) be a function that can be nonparametrically estimated. Suppose E [ Y | X ]= F 0 [ X ß 0 H 0 (X) ] . Many models fit this framework, including latent in- dex models with an endogenous regressor and nonlinear models with sample se- lection. We show that the vector ß 0 and unknown...