We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. A feature that makes this family particularly desirable for econometric applications is that it possesses closed-form expressions for its anti-derivatives (e.g., the...

We consider estimation and inference about the effects of a policy in the absence of a control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the average treatment effects, based on forecasting...

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a single variable across multiple horizons, we...