This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

We consider a situation where a distribution is being estimated by the empirical distribution of noisy measurements. The measurements errors are allowed to be heteroskedastic and their variance may depend on the realization of the underlying random variable. We use an asymptotic embedding where...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

We consider estimation and inference about the effects of a policy in the absence of a control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator of the average treatment effects, based on forecasting...

Quantile regression (QR) is a principal regression method for analyzing the impact of covariates on outcomes. The impact is described by the conditional quantile function and its functionals. In this paper we develop the nonparametric QR series framework, covering many regressors as a special...

We develop inference procedures for policy analysis based on regression methods. We consider policy interventions that correspond to either changes in the distribution of covariates, or changes in the conditional distribution of the outcome given covariates, or both. Under either of these policy...