This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

We present an application of importance sampling in a Monte Carlo simulation for multi-asset options and in a Multi-Level Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that applying importance sampling only on the first level of the Multi-Level Monte Carlo significantly improves its effective...

Using the joint characteristic function of equity price and state variables, we can price contingent claims on both equity and VIX consistently. Based on linear approximation of jump size, we show that one factor models implies all VIX future contract of different maturities are perfectly...

We introduce a stochastic volatility model with self-exciting jump intensity to capture the change in pricing dynamic triggered by big negative stock returns. The stochastic variance and jump intensity, and their risk premium are estimated jointly from daily stock returns and option data over...