This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily...

We derive the theoretical relation between the term structure of implied variance and the expected excess returns of the underlying asset. Adopting three alternative approaches to compile the variables representing the information on the implied volatility index level and term structure, we show...

We compile option-implied tail loss and gain measures based on a deep out-of-the- money option pricing formula derived by applying ‘extreme value theory', and then use these measures to investigate the information content of option-implied tail risk on the future returns of the underlying...

This article illustrates the impact of both spot and option liquidity levels on option prices. Using implied volatility to measure the option price structure, our empirical results reveal that even after controlling for the systematic risk of Duan and Wei (2009), a clear link remains between...

This study investigates the value of two variance components and variance jumps in the pricing of VIX derivatives. In an attempt to significantly reduce the computational burden, we propose an efficient numerical technique for the pricing of VIX derivatives under the affine framework. Our...